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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Krylia Sovetov run riot with a 1-4 hammering of FC Rostov.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Krylia Sovetov beat FC Rostov 1-4 at Rostov Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Rostov 1.38 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.20 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Krylia Sovetov outscored their 1.20 projection by 2.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Rostov attack 0.93 / defence 1.00 against Krylia Sovetov attack 0.98 / defence 1.10, drawn from 32/32 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it FC Rostov 38% | Draw 32% | Krylia Sovetov 30%, with FC Rostov to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Krylia Sovetov win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Rostov 50%, Krylia Sovetov 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Rostov's trading profile (32 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (32 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Rostov 1.22 PPG, Krylia Sovetov 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Krylia Sovetov win broke the near-deadlock. FC Rostov (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights