FC Rostov 3-1 Khimki – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Rostov at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Rostov vs Khimki encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 15 sees Khimki travel to Rostov Arena to take on FC Rostov. The game is scheduled for Saturday 9 November 2024, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Rostov have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L L D L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC Rostov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Rostov Arena, FC Rostov have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — FC Rostov are significantly better at Rostov Arena than their overall form suggests.
Khimki — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Khimki, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khimki's form when playing away from home: 1W 3D 3L across 7 road games this term (0.86 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Rostov 0.90 PPG, Khimki 0.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
FC Rostov hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 3 wins from 4 previous encounters compared to 0 for Khimki, with 1 draws in between.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2023, ended 1–0 with FC Rostov winning.
The historical record gives FC Rostov a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
FC Rostov trading profile (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
Khimki trading profile (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 43% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Rostov 57% versus Khimki 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Rostov 50% | Khimki 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Rostov 1.83 xG and Khimki 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Rostov attack 1.017 / defence 1.175 | Khimki attack 0.729 / defence 1.386. League average goals — home 1.297 / away 1.308. Khimki bring a strong defensive rating of 1.386 — this is suppressing FC Rostov's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 FC Rostov games / 14 Khimki games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Rostov 51% | Draw 29% | Khimki 20%. Fair-value odds: FC Rostov 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | Khimki 5.00. FC Rostov hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.95. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.95 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Rostov are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Rostov offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.95 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Rostov 70% | Khimki 43% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Rostov vs Khimki | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Rostov Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Rostov 51% | Draw 29% | Khimki 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG FC Rostov 1.83 / Khimki 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: FC Rostov attack 1.017 / def 1.175 | Khimki attack 0.729 / def 1.386 | league avg home 1.297 / away 1.308 • Poisson stance: FC Rostov (51%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.83
FC Rostov xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Khimki xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Rostov vs Khimki kick off?
FC Rostov vs Khimki kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Rostov Arena.
What was the final score in FC Rostov vs Khimki?
FC Rostov 3 - 1 Khimki.
Where is FC Rostov vs Khimki being played?
The match is being played at Rostov Arena.
What competition is FC Rostov vs Khimki part of?
FC Rostov vs Khimki is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Rostov vs Khimki?
Our statistical model gives FC Rostov a 51% chance of winning, Khimki a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making FC Rostov the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Rostov vs Khimki?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both FC Rostov and Khimki will score (BTTS).
Will FC Rostov vs Khimki have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Rostov and Khimki?
Record (4 meetings): FC Rostov 3W | Draws 1 | Khimki 0W.
What form are FC Rostov and Khimki in?
FC Rostov (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-D. Khimki (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about FC Rostov vs Khimki?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC Rostov's attack at 1.02x the league average against Khimki's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Khimki's attack versus FC Rostov's defence, projects 1.12 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Rostov Win
51%
1.96
29%
3.48
20%
4.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
FC Rostov xG
Total xG
2.95
1.12
Khimki xG
1.96
51%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
4.93
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.68
41%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
16%
6.22
Win to Nil
17%
6.01
3%
30.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 10.7 | 6.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.7 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Rostov vs Khimki?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are FC Rostov and Khimki expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for FC Rostov and 1.12 for Khimki, a combined total of 2.95.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Rostov vs Khimki?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC Rostov's recent record stands at 3W 5D 6L from 14 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-D in the last five. The sample for FC Rostov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Khimki, meanwhile, have gone 2W 6D 6L across 14 games — 0.86 PPG, with D-L-W-L-D in their last five. The sample for Khimki is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC Rostov on 1.00 PPG, Khimki on 0.86. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC Rostov have managed 2W 3D 2L from 7 games — 1.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Khimki's away record stands at 1W 3D 3L across 7 trips, a 0.86 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Rostov come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
FC Rostov are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Khimki are on 1.07 scored and 1.79 conceded.
Last 14 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Rostov
Blended
Khimki
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Rostov and Khimki in coming into this match?
FC Rostov have gone 3W 5D 6L in their last 14 games (1.00 PPG), while Khimki have gone 2W 6D 6L in their last 14 (0.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Rostov at home or Khimki away?
FC Rostov's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Rostov at home: 1.29 PPG; Khimki away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
FC Rostov's record when hosting Khimki specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
FC Rostov
2
Draws
0
Khimki
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Rostov and Khimki?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Rostov have won 4, Khimki have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Rostov and Khimki last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when Khimki 1-1 FC Rostov.
Who has won more matches between FC Rostov and Khimki?
FC Rostov have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC Rostov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Khimki are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Rostov 57%, Khimki 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (FC Rostov) and 57% (Khimki).
On the defensive side: FC Rostov have failed to score in 43% of games; Khimki in 57%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Rostov home games / Khimki away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Rostov play Khimki?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of FC Rostov's recent matches and 43% of Khimki's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC Rostov vs Khimki usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of FC Rostov's recent games and 57% of Khimki's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Rostov and Khimki tend to score early?
FC Rostov have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Khimki in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Rostov cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Khimki.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Rostov beat Khimki 3-1 at Rostov Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Rostov 1.83 xG and Khimki 1.12 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. FC Rostov beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Rostov attack 1.02 / defence 1.18 against Khimki attack 0.73 / defence 1.39, drawn from 44/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Rostov 51% | Draw 29% | Khimki 20%, with FC Rostov to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Rostov 50%, Khimki 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Rostov's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Khimki's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Rostov 1.00 PPG, Khimki 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Rostov win broke the near-deadlock. FC Rostov (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm. Khimki (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.