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Prediction vindicated as Dynamo edge out FC Rostov 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dynamo beat FC Rostov 0-1 at Rostov Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Rostov 1.14 xG and Dynamo 1.45 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC Rostov fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Rostov attack 0.84 / defence 1.03 against Dynamo attack 1.33 / defence 0.88, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Rostov 30% | Draw 26% | Dynamo 44%, with Dynamo to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Rostov 40%, Dynamo 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Rostov's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Dynamo's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Dynamo arrived the stronger side — 1.66 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC Rostov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward. Dynamo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights