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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Rostov and Dynamo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Rostov Arena, Regular Season - 19, as FC Rostov and Dynamo drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Rostov 1.63 xG and Dynamo 1.47 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Rostov attack 1.24 / defence 1.02 against Dynamo attack 1.21 / defence 0.97, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Rostov 38% | Draw 30% | Dynamo 32%, with FC Rostov to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Rostov 62%, Dynamo 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Rostov's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Dynamo's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Dynamo arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.44. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Rostov (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward. Dynamo (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights