FC Rostov 1-3 CSKA Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates CSKA Moscow at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Rostov vs CSKA Moscow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Rostov and CSKA Moscow meet at Rostov Arena in Premier League, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 August 2021 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
FC Rostov (all games): 0W 1D 2L across 3 Premier League fixtures this term — 0.33 PPG. Last five: L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.33 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.33 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Rostov have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
CSKA Moscow have collected 1.00 PPG across 3 Premier League outings this season: 1W 0D 2L. Last five: W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 3 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. CSKA Moscow have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
CSKA Moscow arrive in superior form — a 0.67 PPG advantage (1.00 vs 0.33) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using overall form) — FC Rostov have seen both teams score in 67% of their games, CSKA Moscow in 67%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
FC Rostov — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
CSKA Moscow — key trading statistics (3 games): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Rostov 67% and CSKA Moscow 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Rostov 33% | CSKA Moscow 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Rostov 1.12 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Rostov attack 0.951 / defence 1.385 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.794 / defence 1.283. League average goals — home 0.915 / away 1.495. CSKA Moscow bring a strong defensive rating of 1.283 — this is suppressing FC Rostov's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 3 FC Rostov games / 3 CSKA Moscow games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC Rostov 26% | Draw 24% | CSKA Moscow 50%. Fair-value odds: FC Rostov 3.85 | Draw 4.17 | CSKA Moscow 2.00. CSKA Moscow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, CSKA Moscow are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on CSKA Moscow if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC Rostov 67% | CSKA Moscow 67% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (3 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Rostov vs CSKA Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Rostov Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Aug 2021, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Rostov 26% | Draw 24% | CSKA Moscow 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 54% | xG FC Rostov 1.12 / CSKA Moscow 1.64 • Poisson strength factors: FC Rostov attack 0.951 / def 1.385 | CSKA Moscow attack 0.794 / def 1.283 | league avg home 0.915 / away 1.495 • Poisson stance: CSKA Moscow (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
FC Rostov xG
Expected Goals
1.64
CSKA Moscow xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Rostov vs CSKA Moscow kick off?
FC Rostov vs CSKA Moscow kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 14 August 2021 at Rostov Arena.
What was the final score in FC Rostov vs CSKA Moscow?
FC Rostov 1 - 3 CSKA Moscow.
Where is FC Rostov vs CSKA Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Rostov Arena.
What competition is FC Rostov vs CSKA Moscow part of?
FC Rostov vs CSKA Moscow is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win FC Rostov vs CSKA Moscow?
Our statistical model gives FC Rostov a 26% chance of winning, CSKA Moscow a 50% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making CSKA Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Rostov vs CSKA Moscow?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both FC Rostov and CSKA Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will FC Rostov vs CSKA Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Rostov and CSKA Moscow?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are FC Rostov and CSKA Moscow in?
FC Rostov (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.33 | L5 L-L-D. CSKA Moscow (all comps): 1W-0D-2L in 3 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.33 | L5 W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC Rostov's attack at 0.95x the league average against CSKA Moscow's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — CSKA Moscow's attack (0.79x) against FC Rostov's defence (1.39x) — and the away total comes out at 1.64.
The sample (3/3 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
CSKA Moscow Win
26%
3.87
24%
4.08
50%
2.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
FC Rostov xG
Total xG
2.76
1.64
CSKA Moscow xG
3.87
26%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
2.01
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
19%
5.18
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
5%
20.04
16%
6.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.4 | 8.6 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 11.6 | 9.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.5 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Rostov vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are FC Rostov and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for FC Rostov and 1.64 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Rostov vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC Rostov's recent record stands at 0W 1D 2L from 3 games, a 0.33 PPG return, with L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for FC Rostov, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
CSKA Moscow, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 2L across 3 games — 1.00 PPG, with W-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours CSKA Moscow by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC Rostov heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC Rostov are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.33 conceded per game recently; CSKA Moscow are on 1.00 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Rostov have seen both teams score in 67% of their recent games; CSKA Moscow in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Rostov
Early Season
CSKA Moscow
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Rostov and CSKA Moscow in coming into this match?
FC Rostov have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 games (0.33 PPG), while CSKA Moscow have gone 1W 0D 2L in their last 3 (1.00 PPG).
Have FC Rostov or CSKA Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Rostov have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, CSKA Moscow in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: CSKA Moscow won 4-0 on 21 May 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Rostov have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against CSKA Moscow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Rostov
4
Draws
4
CSKA Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Rostov and CSKA Moscow?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Rostov have won 2, CSKA Moscow have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did FC Rostov and CSKA Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when CSKA Moscow 1-1 FC Rostov.
Who has won more matches between FC Rostov and CSKA Moscow?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC Rostov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for FC Rostov, 67% for CSKA Moscow — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (FC Rostov) and 67% (CSKA Moscow).
On the defensive side: CSKA Moscow in 33%; FC Rostov have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Rostov home games / CSKA Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Rostov play CSKA Moscow?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of FC Rostov's games and 67% of CSKA Moscow's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Rostov vs CSKA Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of FC Rostov's recent games and 67% of CSKA Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC Rostov and CSKA Moscow tend to score early?
FC Rostov have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, CSKA Moscow in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
CSKA Moscow cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FC Rostov.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
CSKA Moscow beat FC Rostov 1-3 at Rostov Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Rostov 1.12 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.64 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. CSKA Moscow outscored their 1.64 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Rostov attack 0.95 / defence 1.39 against CSKA Moscow attack 0.79 / defence 1.28, drawn from 3/3 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC Rostov 26% | Draw 24% | CSKA Moscow 50%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Rostov 33%, CSKA Moscow 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Rostov's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (3 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. CSKA Moscow scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.