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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FC Rostov defy the odds to beat CSKA Moscow 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Rostov beat CSKA Moscow 1-0 at Rostov Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Rostov 0.90 xG and CSKA Moscow 1.54 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. CSKA Moscow landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Rostov attack 0.81 / defence 1.13 against CSKA Moscow attack 1.11 / defence 0.74, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Rostov 19% | Draw 31% | CSKA Moscow 50%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a FC Rostov win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Rostov 49%, CSKA Moscow 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Rostov's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

CSKA Moscow's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.19. Form was overturned, with FC Rostov winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC Rostov (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights