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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC Rostov and Akhmat share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Rostov Arena, Regular Season - 7, as FC Rostov and Akhmat drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Rostov 1.31 xG and Akhmat 1.37 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Rostov attack 0.81 / defence 1.16 against Akhmat attack 0.91 / defence 1.06, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC Rostov 34% | Draw 29% | Akhmat 37%, with Akhmat to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Rostov 50%, Akhmat 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC Rostov's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Akhmat's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC Rostov 1.19 PPG, Akhmat 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Akhmat (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.94 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights