Fakel 2-2 Torpedo Moskva – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fakel at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fakel vs Torpedo Moskva fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fakel and Torpedo Moskva meet at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov in Premier League, Regular Season - 11. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 2 October 2022 at 12:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fakel's overall Premier League record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Fakel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fakel's home record at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov: 1W 2D 1L from 4 Premier League appearances (1.25 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov.
Torpedo Moskva (all games): 1W 1D 8L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 0.40 points per game. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Torpedo Moskva, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Torpedo Moskva have gone 0W 1D 4L from 5 away fixtures this term (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.80 vs 0.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Fakel goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 30% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Torpedo Moskva goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (10 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 50% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Fakel 80% and Torpedo Moskva 40% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fakel 60% | Torpedo Moskva 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fakel 1.63 xG and Torpedo Moskva 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fakel attack 0.864 / defence 1.177 | Torpedo Moskva attack 0.536 / defence 1.142. League average goals — home 1.649 / away 1.302. Data: 10 Fakel games / 10 Torpedo Moskva games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fakel 55% | Draw 27% | Torpedo Moskva 18%. Fair-value odds: Fakel 1.82 | Draw 3.70 | Torpedo Moskva 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Fakel (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fakel are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 44% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Fakel 50% | Torpedo Moskva 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fakel vs Torpedo Moskva | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fakel 55% | Draw 27% | Torpedo Moskva 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 46% | xG Fakel 1.63 / Torpedo Moskva 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Fakel attack 0.864 / def 1.177 | Torpedo Moskva attack 0.536 / def 1.142 | league avg home 1.649 / away 1.302 • Poisson stance: Fakel (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Fakel xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Torpedo Moskva xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fakel vs Torpedo Moskva kick off?
Fakel vs Torpedo Moskva kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov.
What was the final score in Fakel vs Torpedo Moskva?
Fakel 2 - 2 Torpedo Moskva.
Where is Fakel vs Torpedo Moskva being played?
The match is being played at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov.
What competition is Fakel vs Torpedo Moskva part of?
Fakel vs Torpedo Moskva is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Fakel vs Torpedo Moskva?
Our statistical model gives Fakel a 55% chance of winning, Torpedo Moskva a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fakel the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fakel vs Torpedo Moskva?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Fakel and Torpedo Moskva will score (BTTS).
Will Fakel vs Torpedo Moskva have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fakel and Torpedo Moskva?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fakel and Torpedo Moskva in?
Fakel (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-L-W-D. Torpedo Moskva (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fakel's attack at 0.86x the league average against Torpedo Moskva's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.63 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Torpedo Moskva's attack (0.54x) against Fakel's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 2-0 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fakel Win
55%
1.81
27%
3.67
18%
5.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Fakel xG
Total xG
2.45
0.82
Torpedo Moskva xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
5.70
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
44%
2.27
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
24%
4.12
3%
28.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 11.5 | 4.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fakel vs Torpedo Moskva?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Fakel and Torpedo Moskva expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Fakel and 0.82 for Torpedo Moskva, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Fakel vs Torpedo Moskva?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fakel's recent record stands at 1W 5D 4L from 10 games, a 0.80 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for Fakel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Torpedo Moskva, meanwhile, have gone 1W 1D 8L across 10 games — 0.40 PPG, with L-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Torpedo Moskva is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fakel by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Torpedo Moskva heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fakel have managed 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — 1.25 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 0.80 PPG overall — Fakel are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Torpedo Moskva's away record stands at 0W 1D 3L across 4 trips, a 0.25 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fakel come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fakel are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Torpedo Moskva are on 0.50 scored and 2.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fakel have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games.
Last 10 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fakel
Blended
Torpedo Moskva
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fakel and Torpedo Moskva in coming into this match?
Fakel have gone 1W 5D 4L in their last 10 games (0.80 PPG), while Torpedo Moskva have gone 1W 1D 8L in their last 10 (0.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fakel at home or Torpedo Moskva away?
Fakel's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fakel at home: 1.25 PPG; Torpedo Moskva away: 0.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Fakel
1
Draws
1
Torpedo Moskva
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fakel and Torpedo Moskva?
From 2 meetings on record, Fakel have won 0, Torpedo Moskva have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fakel and Torpedo Moskva last play each other?
They last met on 8 April 2023, when Torpedo Moskva 2-0 Fakel.
Who has won more matches between Fakel and Torpedo Moskva?
Torpedo Moskva have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fakel are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Torpedo Moskva see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fakel 50%, Torpedo Moskva 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 50% for Fakel and 0% for Torpedo Moskva.
On the defensive side: Fakel keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Torpedo Moskva in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fakel home games / Torpedo Moskva away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fakel play Torpedo Moskva?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Fakel's recent matches and 25% of Torpedo Moskva's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fakel vs Torpedo Moskva usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Fakel's recent games and 0% of Torpedo Moskva's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fakel and Torpedo Moskva tend to score early?
Fakel have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Torpedo Moskva in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fakel and Torpedo Moskva share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fakel and Torpedo Moskva finished level at 2-2 at Central'nyi Stadion Profsoyuzov, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fakel 1.63 xG and Torpedo Moskva 0.82 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Torpedo Moskva outscored their 0.82 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fakel attack 0.86 / defence 1.18 against Torpedo Moskva attack 0.54 / defence 1.14, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fakel 55% | Draw 27% | Torpedo Moskva 18%, with Fakel to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fakel 60%, Torpedo Moskva 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fakel's trading profile (10 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Torpedo Moskva's trading profile (10 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Fakel arrived the stronger side — 0.80 PPG against 0.40. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Torpedo Moskva (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.25 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.