Fakel 0-0 Spartak Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Spartak Moscow at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fakel vs Spartak Moscow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fakel host Spartak Moscow at Stadion Fakel in Premier League, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 4 May 2025 at 12:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Fakel — All Games: 0W 2D 8L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.20 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Fakel, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fakel's form when playing at home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 games at Stadion Fakel this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.20 — Fakel are significantly better at Stadion Fakel than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, Spartak Moscow have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Spartak Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spartak Moscow away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Spartak Moscow — 1.70 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.20). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Fakel have won 2, Spartak Moscow 3, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.4 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2024, ended 0–3 with Spartak Moscow winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Fakel in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 4% of games (home games); they fail to score in 55% of games.
Spartak Moscow in-play and half-time data (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fakel 34% versus Spartak Moscow 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fakel 27% | Spartak Moscow 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fakel 0.69 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fakel attack 0.564 / defence 0.989 | Spartak Moscow attack 1.273 / defence 0.814. League average goals — home 1.496 / away 1.100. Fakel's attack strength of 0.564 is below the league average — the 0.69 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Spartak Moscow have an above-average attack strength of 1.273 — the away xG of 1.39 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 Fakel games / 56 Spartak Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fakel 16% | Draw 33% | Spartak Moscow 51%. Fair-value odds: Fakel 6.25 | Draw 3.03 | Spartak Moscow 1.96. Spartak Moscow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.07. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.07 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Spartak Moscow are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spartak Moscow offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.07 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Fakel 30% | Spartak Moscow 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fakel vs Spartak Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stadion Fakel • Kick-off: Sunday 4 May 2025, 12:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fakel 16% | Draw 33% | Spartak Moscow 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 40% | xG Fakel 0.69 / Spartak Moscow 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Fakel attack 0.564 / def 0.989 | Spartak Moscow attack 1.273 / def 0.814 | league avg home 1.496 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: Spartak Moscow (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.69
Fakel xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Spartak Moscow xG
40%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fakel vs Spartak Moscow kick off?
Fakel vs Spartak Moscow kicked off at 12:00 on Sunday 4 May 2025 at Stadion Fakel.
What was the final score in Fakel vs Spartak Moscow?
Fakel 0 - 0 Spartak Moscow.
Where is Fakel vs Spartak Moscow being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Fakel.
What competition is Fakel vs Spartak Moscow part of?
Fakel vs Spartak Moscow is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Fakel vs Spartak Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Fakel a 16% chance of winning, Spartak Moscow a 51% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Spartak Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fakel vs Spartak Moscow?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Fakel and Spartak Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Fakel vs Spartak Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fakel and Spartak Moscow?
Record (5 meetings): Fakel 2W | Draws 0 | Spartak Moscow 3W.
What form are Fakel and Spartak Moscow in?
Fakel (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Spartak Moscow (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Fakel's attacking strength (0.56x league average) is weighed against Spartak Moscow's defensive record (0.81x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.69. The same calculation in reverse, Spartak Moscow's attack versus Fakel's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 15.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.1%), 1-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spartak Moscow Win
16%
6.22
33%
3.06
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.4%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
0 – 2
12.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.69
Fakel xG
Total xG
2.07
1.39
Spartak Moscow xG
6.22
16%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.52
60%
BTTS No
1.66
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
50%
1.99
Win to Nil
4%
24.84
26%
3.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 17.4 | 12.1 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.0 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 4.1 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fakel vs Spartak Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.9%.
How many goals are Fakel and Spartak Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 0.69 expected goals for Fakel and 1.39 for Spartak Moscow, a combined total of 2.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Fakel vs Spartak Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 56 outings, Fakel have picked up 0.84 PPG on a 9W 20D 27L record — L-D-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Fakel is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Spartak Moscow's form line: 29W 13D 14L from 56 games, 1.79 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-L. The sample for Spartak Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Spartak Moscow are the form team by 0.95 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fakel.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Fakel have posted 1.07 PPG from 27 outings (5W 14D 8L).
On the road, Spartak Moscow have gone 10W 8D 9L from 27 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Fakel are averaging 0.61 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Spartak Moscow are on 1.61 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Spartak Moscow in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fakel
Blended
Spartak Moscow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fakel and Spartak Moscow in coming into this match?
Fakel have gone 9W 20D 27L in their last 56 games (0.84 PPG), while Spartak Moscow have gone 29W 13D 14L in their last 56 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fakel at home or Spartak Moscow away?
Spartak Moscow's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fakel at home: 1.07 PPG; Spartak Moscow away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Fakel or Spartak Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fakel have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Spartak Moscow in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fakel and Spartak Moscow runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2022, when Spartak Moscow won 1-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fakel's record when hosting Spartak Moscow specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Fakel
1
Draws
3
Spartak Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fakel and Spartak Moscow?
From 6 meetings on record, Fakel have won 2, Spartak Moscow have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fakel and Spartak Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when Fakel 0-0 Spartak Moscow.
Who has won more matches between Fakel and Spartak Moscow?
Spartak Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fakel see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Spartak Moscow see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Fakel 26% BTTS, Spartak Moscow 41%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 4% for Fakel and 44% for Spartak Moscow.
On the defensive side: Fakel keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Spartak Moscow in 41%; Fakel have failed to score in 56% of games; Spartak Moscow in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fakel home games / Spartak Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fakel play Spartak Moscow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 26% of Fakel's recent matches and 41% of Spartak Moscow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fakel vs Spartak Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 4% of Fakel's recent games and 44% of Spartak Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Fakel's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Fakel, Regular Season - 27, as Fakel and Spartak Moscow drew 0-0 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fakel 0.69 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.39 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Spartak Moscow landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fakel attack 0.56 / defence 0.99 against Spartak Moscow attack 1.27 / defence 0.81, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fakel 16% | Draw 33% | Spartak Moscow 51%, with Spartak Moscow to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fakel 27%, Spartak Moscow 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fakel's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 55% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Spartak Moscow's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Spartak Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.