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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Fakel and Krylia Sovetov share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fakel and Krylia Sovetov finished level at 1-1 at Stadion Fakel, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fakel 0.97 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.11 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fakel attack 0.49 / defence 0.90 against Krylia Sovetov attack 1.13 / defence 1.34, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fakel 29% | Draw 35% | Krylia Sovetov 36%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fakel 25%, Krylia Sovetov 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fakel's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fakel 0.83 PPG, Krylia Sovetov 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights