Fakel vs CSKA Moscow – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Fakel's attack at 0.66x the league average against CSKA Moscow's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 0.71 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — CSKA Moscow's attack (1.11x) against Fakel's defence (0.75x) — and the away total comes out at 1.09.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (16.3%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
CSKA Moscow Win
21%
4.82
38%
2.64
41%
2.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.4%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.71
Fakel xG
Total xG
1.81
1.09
CSKA Moscow xG
4.82
21%
Home win
2.64
38%
Draw
2.42
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.70
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
33%
2.99
49%
2.04
Win to Nil
7%
14.41
20%
4.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.4 | 17.9 | 9.8 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.8 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fakel vs CSKA Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.0%.
How many goals are Fakel and CSKA Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 0.71 expected goals for Fakel and 1.09 for CSKA Moscow, a combined total of 1.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Fakel vs CSKA Moscow?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.