Fakel 2-2 Baltika – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Baltika at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fakel vs Baltika encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 8 as Fakel welcome Baltika to Fakel Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 September 2026 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fakel stand at 0W 2D 5L from 7 Premier League matches — 0.29 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.57 goals per game and conceding 1.43 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 7 outings provides some defensive foundation. Fakel have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fakel's home record at Fakel Stadium: 0W 2D 2L from 4 Premier League appearances (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.25 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 4 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Fakel Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Baltika — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Baltika have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Baltika's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Baltika's 1.00 PPG return is 0.71 points per game ahead of Fakel's 0.29 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Fakel have won 0, Baltika 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Fakel trading profile (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games; they fail to score in 57% of games.
Baltika trading profile (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fakel 43% versus Baltika 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fakel 43% | Baltika 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fakel 0.59 xG and Baltika 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fakel attack 0.560 / defence 0.884 | Baltika attack 1.082 / defence 0.781. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.293. Fakel's attack strength of 0.560 is below the league average — the 0.59 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Baltika's defence strength of 0.781 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 7 Fakel games / 37 Baltika games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fakel 16% | Draw 34% | Baltika 50%. Fair-value odds: Fakel 6.25 | Draw 2.94 | Baltika 2.00. Baltika hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.83. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.83 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Fakel's lower xG of 0.59 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Baltika as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baltika offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.83 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 28% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates corroborate: Fakel 25% | Baltika 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fakel vs Baltika | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Fakel Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Sep 2026, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fakel 16% | Draw 34% | Baltika 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 33% | xG Fakel 0.59 / Baltika 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Fakel attack 0.560 / def 0.884 | Baltika attack 1.082 / def 0.781 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Baltika (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.59
Fakel xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Baltika xG
33%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fakel vs Baltika kick off?
Fakel vs Baltika kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 12 September 2026 at Fakel Stadium.
What was the final score in Fakel vs Baltika?
Fakel 2 - 2 Baltika.
Where is Fakel vs Baltika being played?
The match is being played at Fakel Stadium.
What competition is Fakel vs Baltika part of?
Fakel vs Baltika is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Fakel vs Baltika?
Our statistical model gives Fakel a 16% chance of winning, Baltika a 50% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Baltika the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fakel vs Baltika?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Fakel and Baltika will score (BTTS).
Will Fakel vs Baltika have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fakel and Baltika?
Record (2 meetings): Fakel 0W | Draws 1 | Baltika 1W.
What form are Fakel and Baltika in?
Fakel (all comps): 0W-2D-5L in 7 | 0.29 PPG | GF 0.57 / GA 1.43 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Baltika (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Fakel's attack at 0.56x the league average against Baltika's defence at 0.78x — combine the two and it projects 0.59 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Baltika's attack versus Fakel's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 18.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (17.6%), 1-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baltika Win
16%
6.25
34%
2.98
50%
1.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
19.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.1%
Draw
0 – 2
12.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.59
Fakel xG
Total xG
1.83
1.24
Baltika xG
6.25
16%
Home win
2.98
34%
Draw
1.98
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.00
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
55%
1.80
Win to Nil
5%
21.54
28%
3.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.1 | 19.9 | 12.3 | 5.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 11.7 | 7.3 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fakel vs Baltika?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.4%.
How many goals are Fakel and Baltika expected to score?
The model projects 0.59 expected goals for Fakel and 1.24 for Baltika, a combined total of 1.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Fakel vs Baltika?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fakel's recent record stands at 0W 2D 5L from 7 games, a 0.29 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Fakel, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Baltika, meanwhile, have gone 3W 1D 3L across 7 games — 1.43 PPG, with W-L-D-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Baltika, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Baltika by 1.14 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Fakel heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Fakel have managed 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Baltika's away record stands at 2W 0D 1L across 3 trips, a 2.00 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.43 PPG overall record — Baltika travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baltika come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fakel are averaging 0.57 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Baltika are on 1.43 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Last 7 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fakel
Early Season
Baltika
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fakel and Baltika in coming into this match?
Fakel have gone 0W 2D 5L in their last 7 games (0.29 PPG), while Baltika have gone 3W 1D 3L in their last 7 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fakel at home or Baltika away?
Baltika's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fakel at home: 0.67 PPG; Baltika away: 2.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fakel and Baltika runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Fakel's record when hosting Baltika specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Fakel
2
Draws
1
Baltika
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fakel and Baltika?
From 3 meetings on record, Fakel have won 0, Baltika have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fakel and Baltika last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Fakel 2-2 Baltika.
Who has won more matches between Fakel and Baltika?
Baltika have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fakel tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Baltika are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Fakel 0% BTTS, Baltika 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Fakel and 67% for Baltika.
On the defensive side: Fakel keep a clean sheet in 67% of their matches; Baltika in 67%; Fakel have failed to score in 100% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fakel home games / Baltika away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fakel play Baltika?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Fakel's recent matches and 33% of Baltika's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fakel vs Baltika usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Fakel's recent games and 67% of Baltika's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fakel and Baltika tend to score early?
Fakel have had a goal before half-time in 0% of their recent matches, Baltika in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Fakel and Baltika share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fakel and Baltika finished level at 2-2 at Fakel Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fakel 0.59 xG and Baltika 1.24 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Fakel beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fakel attack 0.56 / defence 0.88 against Baltika attack 1.08 / defence 0.78, drawn from 7/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fakel 16% | Draw 34% | Baltika 50%, with Baltika to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fakel 43%, Baltika 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fakel's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Baltika's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Baltika arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Fakel (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Baltika (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.