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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Zenit cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Dynamo.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zenit beat Dynamo 1-3 at VTB Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo 1.71 xG and Zenit 1.16 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Zenit outscored their 1.16 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo attack 1.22 / defence 1.08 against Zenit attack 1.12 / defence 0.86, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dynamo 50% | Draw 24% | Zenit 26%, with Dynamo to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual Zenit win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo 61%, Zenit 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dynamo's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Zenit's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Zenit arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.69. Form held, and they took the win. Dynamo (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zenit (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights