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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dynamo and Zenit share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at VTB Arena, Regular Season - 26, as Dynamo and Zenit drew 1-1 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo 1.87 xG and Zenit 1.26 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Dynamo fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo attack 1.53 / defence 0.95 against Zenit attack 1.19 / defence 0.80, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dynamo 50% | Draw 27% | Zenit 23%, with Dynamo to win its most likely call at 50%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo 60%, Zenit 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dynamo's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Zenit's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dynamo 1.85 PPG, Zenit 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Dynamo (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward. Zenit (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights