Dynamo 0-2 Spartak Moscow – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dynamo at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dynamo vs Spartak Moscow encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
VTB Arena plays host to Dynamo versus Spartak Moscow in Premier League, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Sunday 6 March 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dynamo have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dynamo's home record at VTB Arena: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier League appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Spartak Moscow's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Spartak Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spartak Moscow away from home this season: 2W 2D 5L from 9 away games — 0.89 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Dynamo. A 1.00 PPG lead over Spartak Moscow (2.00 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Dynamo lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Dynamo half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Spartak Moscow half-time and goal-timing data (19 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dynamo 58% versus Spartak Moscow 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dynamo 53% | Spartak Moscow 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dynamo 1.80 xG and Spartak Moscow 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dynamo attack 1.135 / defence 1.004 | Spartak Moscow attack 0.731 / defence 1.355. League average goals — home 1.170 / away 1.169. Spartak Moscow bring a strong defensive rating of 1.355 — this is suppressing Dynamo's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 19 Dynamo games / 19 Spartak Moscow games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dynamo 59% | Draw 23% | Spartak Moscow 17%. Fair-value odds: Dynamo 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Spartak Moscow 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Dynamo (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dynamo at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Dynamo 60% | Spartak Moscow 44%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dynamo vs Spartak Moscow | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: VTB Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Mar 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dynamo 59% | Draw 23% | Spartak Moscow 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 48% | xG Dynamo 1.80 / Spartak Moscow 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Dynamo attack 1.135 / def 1.004 | Spartak Moscow attack 0.731 / def 1.355 | league avg home 1.170 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Dynamo (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Dynamo xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Spartak Moscow xG
48%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dynamo vs Spartak Moscow kick off?
Dynamo vs Spartak Moscow kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 6 March 2022 at VTB Arena.
What was the final score in Dynamo vs Spartak Moscow?
Dynamo 0 - 2 Spartak Moscow.
Where is Dynamo vs Spartak Moscow being played?
The match is being played at VTB Arena.
What competition is Dynamo vs Spartak Moscow part of?
Dynamo vs Spartak Moscow is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Dynamo vs Spartak Moscow?
Our statistical model gives Dynamo a 59% chance of winning, Spartak Moscow a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Dynamo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dynamo vs Spartak Moscow?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Dynamo and Spartak Moscow will score (BTTS).
Will Dynamo vs Spartak Moscow have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo and Spartak Moscow?
Record (1 meetings): Dynamo 0W | Draws 1 | Spartak Moscow 0W.
What form are Dynamo and Spartak Moscow in?
Dynamo (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Spartak Moscow (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Dynamo's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Spartak Moscow's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. Flip it around — Spartak Moscow's attack (0.73x) against Dynamo's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 19/19 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.2%. Close behind: 2-0 (11.4%), 1-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Win
59%
1.68
23%
4.28
17%
5.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
11.4%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Dynamo xG
Total xG
2.66
0.86
Spartak Moscow xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
5.79
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
17%
6.05
Win to Nil
25%
3.97
3%
35.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 12.6 | 10.8 | 4.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 6.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dynamo vs Spartak Moscow?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Dynamo and Spartak Moscow expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Dynamo and 0.86 for Spartak Moscow, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Dynamo vs Spartak Moscow?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 19 outings, Dynamo have picked up 2.05 PPG on a 12W 3D 4L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Dynamo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Spartak Moscow's form line: 6W 5D 8L from 19 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-L. The sample for Spartak Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Dynamo are the form team by 0.84 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Spartak Moscow.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Dynamo have posted 1.89 PPG from 9 outings (5W 2D 2L).
On the road, Spartak Moscow have gone 2W 2D 5L from 9 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dynamo are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Spartak Moscow are on 1.05 scored and 1.47 conceded.
Defensively: Dynamo have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 19 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dynamo
Blended
Spartak Moscow
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dynamo and Spartak Moscow in coming into this match?
Dynamo have gone 12W 3D 4L in their last 19 games (2.05 PPG), while Spartak Moscow have gone 6W 5D 8L in their last 19 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dynamo at home or Spartak Moscow away?
Dynamo's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dynamo at home: 1.89 PPG; Spartak Moscow away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Dynamo or Spartak Moscow been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dynamo have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Spartak Moscow in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 6 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dynamo have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Spartak Moscow — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Dynamo
5
Draws
3
Spartak Moscow
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo and Spartak Moscow?
From 10 meetings on record, Dynamo have won 2, Spartak Moscow have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Dynamo and Spartak Moscow last play each other?
They last met on 6 December 2025, when Spartak Moscow 1-1 Dynamo.
Who has won more matches between Dynamo and Spartak Moscow?
Spartak Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dynamo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Spartak Moscow see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dynamo 56%, Spartak Moscow 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Dynamo and 33% for Spartak Moscow.
On the defensive side: Dynamo keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Spartak Moscow in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dynamo home games / Spartak Moscow away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dynamo play Spartak Moscow?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Dynamo's recent matches and 44% of Spartak Moscow's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dynamo vs Spartak Moscow usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Dynamo's recent games and 33% of Spartak Moscow's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dynamo and Spartak Moscow tend to score early?
Dynamo have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Spartak Moscow in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Spartak Moscow cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Dynamo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spartak Moscow beat Dynamo 0-2 at VTB Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo 1.80 xG and Spartak Moscow 0.86 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Dynamo fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Spartak Moscow outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo attack 1.14 / defence 1.00 against Spartak Moscow attack 0.73 / defence 1.35, drawn from 19/19 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dynamo 59% | Draw 23% | Spartak Moscow 17%, with Dynamo to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Spartak Moscow win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo 53%, Spartak Moscow 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dynamo's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Spartak Moscow's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo arrived the stronger side — 2.05 PPG against 1.21. Form was overturned, with Spartak Moscow winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dynamo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.78 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.