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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dynamo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Spartak Moscow.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dynamo beat Spartak Moscow 2-0 at VTB Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo 1.67 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.19 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Spartak Moscow landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo attack 1.50 / defence 0.95 against Spartak Moscow attack 1.15 / defence 0.77, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dynamo 46% | Draw 28% | Spartak Moscow 25%, with Dynamo to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo 60%, Spartak Moscow 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dynamo's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.

Spartak Moscow's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dynamo 1.86 PPG, Spartak Moscow 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dynamo win broke the near-deadlock. Dynamo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.04 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights