🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dynamo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over FC Sochi.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dynamo beat FC Sochi 2-0 at VTB Arena, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo 2.03 xG and FC Sochi 1.25 xG, a combined 3.28. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. FC Sochi landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo attack 1.21 / defence 1.36 against FC Sochi attack 0.86 / defence 1.21, drawn from 56/26 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dynamo 55% | Draw 22% | FC Sochi 23%, with Dynamo to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo 64%, FC Sochi 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dynamo's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Sochi's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Dynamo arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.75. Form held, and they took the win. Dynamo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line. FC Sochi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights