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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Dynamo run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Krylia Sovetov.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dynamo beat Krylia Sovetov 4-0 at VTB Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo 2.09 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.05 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Dynamo beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Krylia Sovetov landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo attack 1.18 / defence 1.20 against Krylia Sovetov attack 0.87 / defence 1.26, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dynamo 61% | Draw 21% | Krylia Sovetov 18%, with Dynamo to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo 60%, Krylia Sovetov 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dynamo's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Dynamo arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dynamo (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.25 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights