Dynamo vs Khimki – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Dynamo's attack rating (1.18) and Khimki's defence rating (1.30), the model arrives at 2.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Khimki's attack (0.91x) against Dynamo's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 47/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Win
57%
1.75
25%
4.03
18%
5.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
9.2%
Draw
2 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Dynamo xG
Total xG
3.28
1.16
Khimki xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
5.58
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.60
37%
BTTS No
2.67
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
12%
8.36
Win to Nil
18%
5.57
2%
46.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 5.7 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dynamo vs Khimki?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.4%.
How many goals are Dynamo and Khimki expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Dynamo and 1.16 for Khimki, a combined total of 3.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Dynamo vs Khimki?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.