🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Dynamo edge out FC Rostov 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dynamo beat FC Rostov 1-0 at VTB Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo 1.69 xG and FC Rostov 1.03 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC Rostov landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo attack 1.21 / defence 0.90 against FC Rostov attack 1.04 / defence 1.00, drawn from 31/31 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Dynamo 50% | Draw 30% | FC Rostov 20%, with Dynamo to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo 58%, FC Rostov 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dynamo's trading profile (31 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Rostov's trading profile (31 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Dynamo arrived the stronger side — 1.84 PPG against 1.26. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dynamo (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.38 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line. FC Rostov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights