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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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CSKA Moscow cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Dynamo.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

CSKA Moscow beat Dynamo 1-3 at VTB Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo 1.22 xG and CSKA Moscow 0.91 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. CSKA Moscow outscored their 0.91 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo attack 1.11 / defence 0.81 against CSKA Moscow attack 0.95 / defence 0.77, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dynamo 41% | Draw 33% | CSKA Moscow 25%, with Dynamo to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a CSKA Moscow win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo 53%, CSKA Moscow 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dynamo's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

CSKA Moscow's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dynamo 1.79 PPG, CSKA Moscow 1.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the CSKA Moscow win broke the near-deadlock. Dynamo (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.88 concession average — a leakier day than usual. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.35 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights