🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dynamo and Baltika share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dynamo and Baltika finished level at 1-1 at VTB Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo 2.28 xG and Baltika 0.86 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Dynamo fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo attack 1.22 / defence 0.92 against Baltika attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/0 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dynamo 68% | Draw 21% | Baltika 11%, with Dynamo to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights