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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dynamo and Akhmat share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dynamo and Akhmat finished level at 2-2 at VTB Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo 1.93 xG and Akhmat 1.42 xG, a combined 3.34. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo attack 1.25 / defence 1.28 against Akhmat attack 0.91 / defence 1.06, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dynamo 48% | Draw 25% | Akhmat 27%, with Dynamo to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo 58%, Akhmat 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dynamo's trading profile (41 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Akhmat's trading profile (41 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Dynamo arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dynamo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Akhmat (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights