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Stalemate at Dinamo Makhachkala's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Anzhi Arena, Regular Season - 10, as Dinamo Makhachkala and FC Sochi drew 0-0 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dinamo Makhachkala 1.92 xG and FC Sochi 0.61 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Dinamo Makhachkala fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.89 / defence 0.77 against FC Sochi attack 0.66 / defence 1.47, drawn from 39/9 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dinamo Makhachkala 67% | Draw 23% | FC Sochi 10%, with Dinamo Makhachkala to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dinamo Makhachkala 9%, FC Sochi 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dinamo Makhachkala's trading profile (11 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

FC Sochi's trading profile (11 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Dinamo Makhachkala arrived the stronger side — 1.00 PPG against 0.36. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dinamo Makhachkala (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Sochi (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.80 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights