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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Dinamo Makhachkala edge out FC Orenburg 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dinamo Makhachkala beat FC Orenburg 1-0 at Anzhi Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dinamo Makhachkala 1.36 xG and FC Orenburg 0.86 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC Orenburg landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.83 / defence 0.93 against FC Orenburg attack 0.85 / defence 1.06, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dinamo Makhachkala 48% | Draw 28% | FC Orenburg 24%, with Dinamo Makhachkala to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dinamo Makhachkala 24%, FC Orenburg 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dinamo Makhachkala's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not.

FC Orenburg's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dinamo Makhachkala 0.94 PPG, FC Orenburg 0.74 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dinamo Makhachkala win broke the near-deadlock. Dinamo Makhachkala (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line. FC Orenburg (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.12 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights