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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dinamo Makhachkala and Lokomotiv share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dinamo Makhachkala and Lokomotiv finished level at 1-1 at Anzhi Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dinamo Makhachkala 1.28 xG and Lokomotiv 1.11 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.92 / defence 0.78 against Lokomotiv attack 1.17 / defence 0.94, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dinamo Makhachkala 38% | Draw 32% | Lokomotiv 30%, with Dinamo Makhachkala to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dinamo Makhachkala 26%, Lokomotiv 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dinamo Makhachkala's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.

Lokomotiv's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Lokomotiv arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 0.97. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights