🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dinamo Makhachkala cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Krylia Sovetov.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dinamo Makhachkala beat Krylia Sovetov 2-0 at Anzhi Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dinamo Makhachkala 1.14 xG and Krylia Sovetov 0.94 xG, a combined 2.07. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Dinamo Makhachkala beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Krylia Sovetov landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.74 / defence 0.80 against Krylia Sovetov attack 0.97 / defence 1.10, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dinamo Makhachkala 38% | Draw 34% | Krylia Sovetov 28%, with Dinamo Makhachkala to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dinamo Makhachkala 23%, Krylia Sovetov 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dinamo Makhachkala's trading profile (43 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.

Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (43 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dinamo Makhachkala 0.93 PPG, Krylia Sovetov 1.02 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dinamo Makhachkala win broke the near-deadlock. Dinamo Makhachkala (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights