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Dominant Dinamo Makhachkala run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Krylia Sovetov.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dinamo Makhachkala beat Krylia Sovetov 4-0 at Anzhi Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dinamo Makhachkala 1.09 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.26 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Dinamo Makhachkala beat their projection by 2.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Krylia Sovetov landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.78 / defence 1.08 against Krylia Sovetov attack 0.99 / defence 1.08, drawn from 20/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dinamo Makhachkala 28% | Draw 36% | Krylia Sovetov 36%, with Krylia Sovetov to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Dinamo Makhachkala win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dinamo Makhachkala 20%, Krylia Sovetov 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dinamo Makhachkala's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.

Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dinamo Makhachkala 0.90 PPG, Krylia Sovetov 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dinamo Makhachkala win broke the near-deadlock. Dinamo Makhachkala (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights