Dinamo Makhachkala 0-1 FC Krasnodar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours FC Krasnodar (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Dinamo Makhachkala face FC Krasnodar.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Anzhi Arena plays host to Dinamo Makhachkala versus FC Krasnodar in Premier League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Sunday 23 August 2026 at 14:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dinamo Makhachkala have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Dinamo Makhachkala have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dinamo Makhachkala's home record at Anzhi Arena: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
FC Krasnodar's overall Premier League record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Krasnodar have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Krasnodar away from home this season: 6W 2D 2L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. FC Krasnodar are 0.80 PPG clear of Dinamo Makhachkala in recent Premier League fixtures (2.50 vs 1.70). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Across the last 4 meetings, FC Krasnodar have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Dinamo Makhachkala's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with FC Krasnodar winning.
It is worth noting that FC Krasnodar have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Dinamo Makhachkala half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
FC Krasnodar half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dinamo Makhachkala 44% versus FC Krasnodar 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dinamo Makhachkala 32% | FC Krasnodar 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dinamo Makhachkala 1.10 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.973 / defence 0.906 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.222 / defence 0.855. League average goals — home 1.328 / away 1.286. FC Krasnodar have an above-average attack strength of 1.222 — the away xG of 1.42 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 Dinamo Makhachkala games / 34 FC Krasnodar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dinamo Makhachkala 26% | Draw 34% | FC Krasnodar 41%. Fair-value odds: Dinamo Makhachkala 3.85 | Draw 2.94 | FC Krasnodar 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Krasnodar at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Krasnodar if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.53 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dinamo Makhachkala 40% | FC Krasnodar 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Krasnodar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Anzhi Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Aug 2026, 14:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dinamo Makhachkala 26% | Draw 34% | FC Krasnodar 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 54% | xG Dinamo Makhachkala 1.10 / FC Krasnodar 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.973 / def 0.906 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.222 / def 0.855 | league avg home 1.328 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: FC Krasnodar (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.10
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
Expected Goals
1.42
FC Krasnodar xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Krasnodar kick off?
Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Krasnodar kicked off at 14:30 on Sunday 23 August 2026 at Anzhi Arena.
What was the final score in Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Krasnodar?
Dinamo Makhachkala 0 - 1 FC Krasnodar.
Where is Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Krasnodar being played?
The match is being played at Anzhi Arena.
What competition is Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Krasnodar part of?
Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Krasnodar is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Krasnodar?
Our statistical model gives Dinamo Makhachkala a 26% chance of winning, FC Krasnodar a 41% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making FC Krasnodar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Krasnodar?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Dinamo Makhachkala and FC Krasnodar will score (BTTS).
Will Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Krasnodar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dinamo Makhachkala and FC Krasnodar?
Record (4 meetings): Dinamo Makhachkala 0W | Draws 1 | FC Krasnodar 3W.
What form are Dinamo Makhachkala and FC Krasnodar in?
Dinamo Makhachkala (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. FC Krasnodar (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Dinamo Makhachkala's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against FC Krasnodar's defensive record (0.85x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.10. Flip it around — FC Krasnodar's attack (1.22x) against Dinamo Makhachkala's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 1.42.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.7%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Krasnodar Win
26%
3.90
34%
2.97
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.4%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.10
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
Total xG
2.53
1.42
FC Krasnodar xG
3.90
26%
Home win
2.97
34%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
24%
4.15
33%
3.02
Win to Nil
6%
16.19
13%
7.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.4 | 8.1 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.9 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Krasnodar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Dinamo Makhachkala and FC Krasnodar expected to score?
The model projects 1.10 expected goals for Dinamo Makhachkala and 1.42 for FC Krasnodar, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Krasnodar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dinamo Makhachkala come into this having played 34 games, going 10W 10D 14L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Dinamo Makhachkala, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC Krasnodar sit at 2.29 PPG from 34 outings (24W 6D 4L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Krasnodar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Krasnodar carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.11 PPG clear of Dinamo Makhachkala — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Dinamo Makhachkala's home form reads 7W 5D 5L across 17 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Krasnodar have taken 2.06 points per game from 17 outings (10W 5D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Krasnodar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dinamo Makhachkala are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; FC Krasnodar are on 2.03 scored and 0.79 conceded.
Defensively: FC Krasnodar in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dinamo Makhachkala
Early Season
FC Krasnodar
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dinamo Makhachkala and FC Krasnodar in coming into this match?
Dinamo Makhachkala have gone 10W 10D 14L in their last 34 games (1.18 PPG), while FC Krasnodar have gone 24W 6D 4L in their last 34 (2.29 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dinamo Makhachkala at home or FC Krasnodar away?
FC Krasnodar's away record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dinamo Makhachkala at home: 1.53 PPG; FC Krasnodar away: 2.06 PPG.
Have Dinamo Makhachkala or FC Krasnodar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dinamo Makhachkala have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, FC Krasnodar in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since July 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Krasnodar go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dinamo Makhachkala have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC Krasnodar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Dinamo Makhachkala
1
Draws
4
FC Krasnodar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dinamo Makhachkala and FC Krasnodar?
From 5 meetings on record, Dinamo Makhachkala have won 0, FC Krasnodar have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dinamo Makhachkala and FC Krasnodar last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Dinamo Makhachkala 0-1 FC Krasnodar.
Who has won more matches between Dinamo Makhachkala and FC Krasnodar?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dinamo Makhachkala are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dinamo Makhachkala 35%, FC Krasnodar 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 24% (Dinamo Makhachkala) and 47% (FC Krasnodar).
On the defensive side: Dinamo Makhachkala keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; FC Krasnodar in 41%; Dinamo Makhachkala have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dinamo Makhachkala home games / FC Krasnodar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dinamo Makhachkala play FC Krasnodar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Dinamo Makhachkala's recent matches and 59% of FC Krasnodar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Krasnodar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 24% of Dinamo Makhachkala's recent games and 47% of FC Krasnodar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dinamo Makhachkala and FC Krasnodar tend to score early?
Dinamo Makhachkala have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, FC Krasnodar in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as FC Krasnodar edge out Dinamo Makhachkala 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Krasnodar beat Dinamo Makhachkala 0-1 at Anzhi Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dinamo Makhachkala 1.10 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.42 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dinamo Makhachkala fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.97 / defence 0.91 against FC Krasnodar attack 1.22 / defence 0.85, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dinamo Makhachkala 26% | Draw 34% | FC Krasnodar 41%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dinamo Makhachkala 32%, FC Krasnodar 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dinamo Makhachkala's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Krasnodar's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Krasnodar arrived the stronger side — 2.29 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dinamo Makhachkala (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.