Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Krasnodar – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours FC Krasnodar (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Dinamo Makhachkala face FC Krasnodar.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Anzhi Arena plays host to Dinamo Makhachkala versus FC Krasnodar in Premier League, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off: Saturday 22 August 2026 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dinamo Makhachkala have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: D D W W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Dinamo Makhachkala have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dinamo Makhachkala's home record at Anzhi Arena: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
FC Krasnodar's overall Premier League record this term: 7W 2D 1L from 10 games (2.30 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. FC Krasnodar have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
FC Krasnodar away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. FC Krasnodar are 1.00 PPG clear of Dinamo Makhachkala in recent Premier League fixtures (2.30 vs 1.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
Across the last 4 meetings, FC Krasnodar have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Dinamo Makhachkala's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with FC Krasnodar winning.
It is worth noting that FC Krasnodar have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Dinamo Makhachkala half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 19% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
FC Krasnodar half-time and goal-timing data (31 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dinamo Makhachkala 39% versus FC Krasnodar 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dinamo Makhachkala 26% | FC Krasnodar 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dinamo Makhachkala 1.09 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.906 / defence 0.946 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.219 / defence 0.887. League average goals — home 1.351 / away 1.163. FC Krasnodar have an above-average attack strength of 1.219 — the away xG of 1.34 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 31 Dinamo Makhachkala games / 31 FC Krasnodar games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Dinamo Makhachkala 29% | Draw 30% | FC Krasnodar 41%. Fair-value odds: Dinamo Makhachkala 3.45 | Draw 3.33 | FC Krasnodar 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC Krasnodar at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on FC Krasnodar if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.43 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Dinamo Makhachkala 30% | FC Krasnodar 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (31 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Krasnodar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Anzhi Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Aug 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dinamo Makhachkala 29% | Draw 30% | FC Krasnodar 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Dinamo Makhachkala 1.09 / FC Krasnodar 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.906 / def 0.946 | FC Krasnodar attack 1.219 / def 0.887 | league avg home 1.351 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: FC Krasnodar (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
Expected Goals
1.34
FC Krasnodar xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Krasnodar kick off?
Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Krasnodar is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 22 August 2026 at Anzhi Arena.
Where is Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Krasnodar being played?
The match is being played at Anzhi Arena.
What competition is Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Krasnodar part of?
Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Krasnodar is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Krasnodar?
Our statistical model gives Dinamo Makhachkala a 29% chance of winning, FC Krasnodar a 41% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making FC Krasnodar the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Krasnodar?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Dinamo Makhachkala and FC Krasnodar will score (BTTS).
Will Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Krasnodar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dinamo Makhachkala and FC Krasnodar?
Record (4 meetings): Dinamo Makhachkala 0W | Draws 1 | FC Krasnodar 3W.
What form are Dinamo Makhachkala and FC Krasnodar in?
Dinamo Makhachkala (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. FC Krasnodar (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Dinamo Makhachkala's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against FC Krasnodar's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. Flip it around — FC Krasnodar's attack (1.22x) against Dinamo Makhachkala's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.34.
The sample (31/31 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Krasnodar Win
29%
3.48
30%
3.30
41%
2.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Dinamo Makhachkala xG
Total xG
2.43
1.34
FC Krasnodar xG
3.48
29%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.44
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
26%
3.82
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
8%
13.29
14%
7.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 11.8 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.0 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Krasnodar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Dinamo Makhachkala and FC Krasnodar expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Dinamo Makhachkala and 1.34 for FC Krasnodar, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Krasnodar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dinamo Makhachkala come into this having played 31 games, going 8W 10D 13L for 1.10 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for Dinamo Makhachkala, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, FC Krasnodar sit at 2.23 PPG from 31 outings (21W 6D 4L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for FC Krasnodar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
FC Krasnodar carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.13 PPG clear of Dinamo Makhachkala — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Dinamo Makhachkala's home form reads 6W 5D 5L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Krasnodar have taken 2.00 points per game from 16 outings (9W 5D 2L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Krasnodar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dinamo Makhachkala are averaging 0.74 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; FC Krasnodar are on 2.03 scored and 0.77 conceded.
Defensively: FC Krasnodar in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dinamo Makhachkala
Early Season
FC Krasnodar
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dinamo Makhachkala and FC Krasnodar in coming into this match?
Dinamo Makhachkala have gone 8W 10D 13L in their last 31 games (1.10 PPG), while FC Krasnodar have gone 21W 6D 4L in their last 31 (2.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dinamo Makhachkala at home or FC Krasnodar away?
FC Krasnodar's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dinamo Makhachkala at home: 1.44 PPG; FC Krasnodar away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Dinamo Makhachkala or FC Krasnodar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dinamo Makhachkala have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, FC Krasnodar in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since July 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
FC Krasnodar go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dinamo Makhachkala have gone 0W 0D 2L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Krasnodar — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Dinamo Makhachkala
1
Draws
3
FC Krasnodar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dinamo Makhachkala and FC Krasnodar?
From 4 meetings on record, Dinamo Makhachkala have won 0, FC Krasnodar have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Dinamo Makhachkala and FC Krasnodar last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when FC Krasnodar 2-1 Dinamo Makhachkala.
Who has won more matches between Dinamo Makhachkala and FC Krasnodar?
FC Krasnodar have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dinamo Makhachkala are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
FC Krasnodar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dinamo Makhachkala 31%, FC Krasnodar 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 19% for Dinamo Makhachkala and 44% for FC Krasnodar.
On the defensive side: Dinamo Makhachkala keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; FC Krasnodar in 44%; Dinamo Makhachkala have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dinamo Makhachkala home games / FC Krasnodar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dinamo Makhachkala play FC Krasnodar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Dinamo Makhachkala's recent matches and 56% of FC Krasnodar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dinamo Makhachkala vs FC Krasnodar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 19% of Dinamo Makhachkala's recent games and 44% of FC Krasnodar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dinamo Makhachkala and FC Krasnodar tend to score early?
Dinamo Makhachkala have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, FC Krasnodar in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.