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Dominant Dinamo Makhachkala run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Khimki.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dinamo Makhachkala beat Khimki 4-1 at Anzhi Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dinamo Makhachkala 1.66 xG and Khimki 0.90 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Dinamo Makhachkala beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.93 / defence 1.02 against Khimki attack 0.85 / defence 1.20, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dinamo Makhachkala 52% | Draw 31% | Khimki 17%, with Dinamo Makhachkala to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dinamo Makhachkala 23%, Khimki 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dinamo Makhachkala's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Khimki's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dinamo Makhachkala 0.95 PPG, Khimki 1.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dinamo Makhachkala win broke the near-deadlock. Dinamo Makhachkala (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm. Khimki (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.09 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights