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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dinamo Makhachkala and FC Rostov share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dinamo Makhachkala and FC Rostov finished level at 1-1 at Anzhi Arena, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dinamo Makhachkala 1.46 xG and FC Rostov 1.35 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dinamo Makhachkala attack 1.03 / defence 1.14 against FC Rostov attack 1.08 / defence 0.96, drawn from 29/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dinamo Makhachkala 38% | Draw 29% | FC Rostov 33%, with Dinamo Makhachkala to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dinamo Makhachkala 31%, FC Rostov 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dinamo Makhachkala's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

FC Rostov's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Dinamo Makhachkala 0.97 PPG, FC Rostov 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights