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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Dinamo Makhachkala edge out Dynamo 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Dinamo Makhachkala beat Dynamo 1-0 at Anzhi Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dinamo Makhachkala 1.32 xG and Dynamo 0.89 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dynamo landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.93 / defence 0.83 against Dynamo attack 0.83 / defence 0.95, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dinamo Makhachkala 44% | Draw 33% | Dynamo 23%, with Dinamo Makhachkala to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dinamo Makhachkala 28%, Dynamo 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dinamo Makhachkala's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not.

Dynamo's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Dynamo arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with Dinamo Makhachkala winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dinamo Makhachkala (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Dynamo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights