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Shock result as CSKA Moscow defy the odds to beat Dinamo Makhachkala 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

CSKA Moscow beat Dinamo Makhachkala 0-1 at Anzhi Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dinamo Makhachkala 1.08 xG and CSKA Moscow 0.84 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Dinamo Makhachkala fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.81 / defence 0.76 against CSKA Moscow attack 0.96 / defence 0.95, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dinamo Makhachkala 38% | Draw 36% | CSKA Moscow 26%, with Dinamo Makhachkala to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual CSKA Moscow win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dinamo Makhachkala 23%, CSKA Moscow 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dinamo Makhachkala's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 46% of games, a blank that repeated today.

CSKA Moscow's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Dinamo Makhachkala (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.19 scoring average — below par going forward. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights