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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dinamo Makhachkala and Baltika share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Anzhi Arena, Regular Season - 23, as Dinamo Makhachkala and Baltika drew 2-2 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Dinamo Makhachkala 1.07 xG and Baltika 0.74 xG, a combined 1.81. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Dinamo Makhachkala beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Baltika outscored their 0.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.81 / defence 0.86 against Baltika attack 0.83 / defence 0.83, drawn from 52/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Dinamo Makhachkala 43% | Draw 32% | Baltika 25%, with Dinamo Makhachkala to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 54% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 18% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dinamo Makhachkala 18%, Baltika 18%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 27%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Dinamo Makhachkala's trading profile (22 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did.

Baltika's trading profile (22 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 64% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Baltika arrived the stronger side — 1.91 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Dinamo Makhachkala (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.82 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Baltika (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.45 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights