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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Zenit cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over CSKA Moscow.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zenit beat CSKA Moscow 1-3 at VEB Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting CSKA Moscow 0.94 xG and Zenit 1.26 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Zenit outscored their 1.26 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of CSKA Moscow attack 1.00 / defence 1.12 against Zenit attack 1.06 / defence 0.69, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it CSKA Moscow 28% | Draw 29% | Zenit 44%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (CSKA Moscow 42%, Zenit 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

CSKA Moscow's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Zenit's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — CSKA Moscow 1.82 PPG, Zenit 2.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zenit win broke the near-deadlock. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Zenit (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights