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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant CSKA Moscow run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Rubin.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

CSKA Moscow beat Rubin 5-1 at VEB Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting CSKA Moscow 1.53 xG and Rubin 1.17 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. CSKA Moscow beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of CSKA Moscow attack 1.10 / defence 0.87 against Rubin attack 1.08 / defence 1.03, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it CSKA Moscow 42% | Draw 31% | Rubin 26%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (CSKA Moscow 42%, Rubin 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

CSKA Moscow's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Rubin's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — CSKA Moscow 1.94 PPG, Rubin 1.58 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the CSKA Moscow win broke the near-deadlock. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.69 average — above their attacking norm. Rubin (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights