CSKA Moscow 4-0 Krylia Sovetov – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates CSKA Moscow at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
VEB Arena plays host to CSKA Moscow versus Krylia Sovetov in Premier League, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Sunday 12 March 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
CSKA Moscow (all games): 3W 3D 4L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at VEB Arena, CSKA Moscow have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — CSKA Moscow are significantly better at VEB Arena than their overall form suggests.
Krylia Sovetov have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Krylia Sovetov's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for CSKA Moscow, 1.10 for Krylia Sovetov — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: CSKA Moscow 2W, Krylia Sovetov 0W, 0D.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Sep 2022, ended 1–0 with CSKA Moscow winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
CSKA Moscow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Krylia Sovetov goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — CSKA Moscow 44% versus Krylia Sovetov 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (CSKA Moscow 44% | Krylia Sovetov 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects CSKA Moscow 1.68 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: CSKA Moscow attack 1.087 / defence 0.942 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.866 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.621 / away 1.373. Data: 48 CSKA Moscow games / 48 Krylia Sovetov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 51% | Draw 24% | Krylia Sovetov 25%. Fair-value odds: CSKA Moscow 1.96 | Draw 4.17 | Krylia Sovetov 4.00. CSKA Moscow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, CSKA Moscow are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on CSKA Moscow if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: CSKA Moscow 50% | Krylia Sovetov 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: VEB Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Mar 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 51% | Draw 24% | Krylia Sovetov 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG CSKA Moscow 1.68 / Krylia Sovetov 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: CSKA Moscow attack 1.087 / def 0.942 | Krylia Sovetov attack 0.866 / def 0.955 | league avg home 1.621 / away 1.373 • Poisson stance: CSKA Moscow (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
CSKA Moscow xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Krylia Sovetov xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov kick off?
CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 12 March 2023 at VEB Arena.
What was the final score in CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov?
CSKA Moscow 4 - 0 Krylia Sovetov.
Where is CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov being played?
The match is being played at VEB Arena.
What competition is CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov part of?
CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our statistical model gives CSKA Moscow a 51% chance of winning, Krylia Sovetov a 25% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making CSKA Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both CSKA Moscow and Krylia Sovetov will score (BTTS).
Will CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and Krylia Sovetov?
Record (2 meetings): CSKA Moscow 2W | Draws 0 | Krylia Sovetov 0W.
What form are CSKA Moscow and Krylia Sovetov in?
CSKA Moscow (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
CSKA Moscow's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Krylia Sovetov's defensive record (0.95x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. Flip it around — Krylia Sovetov's attack (0.87x) against CSKA Moscow's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
CSKA Moscow Win
51%
1.98
24%
4.14
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
CSKA Moscow xG
Total xG
2.80
1.12
Krylia Sovetov xG
1.98
51%
Home win
4.14
24%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
33%
3.07
19%
5.39
Win to Nil
16%
6.07
5%
21.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 11.4 | 6.4 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are CSKA Moscow and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for CSKA Moscow and 1.12 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
CSKA Moscow's recent record stands at 23W 10D 15L from 48 games, a 1.65 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Krylia Sovetov, meanwhile, have gone 17W 10D 21L across 48 games — 1.27 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.65 PPG for CSKA Moscow against 1.27 for Krylia Sovetov. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, CSKA Moscow have managed 14W 5D 4L from 23 games — 2.04 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Krylia Sovetov's away record stands at 8W 3D 12L across 23 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, CSKA Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
CSKA Moscow are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Krylia Sovetov are on 1.23 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Defensively: CSKA Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
CSKA Moscow
Blended
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are CSKA Moscow and Krylia Sovetov in coming into this match?
CSKA Moscow have gone 23W 10D 15L in their last 48 games (1.65 PPG), while Krylia Sovetov have gone 17W 10D 21L in their last 48 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — CSKA Moscow at home or Krylia Sovetov away?
CSKA Moscow's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — CSKA Moscow at home: 2.04 PPG; Krylia Sovetov away: 1.17 PPG.
Have CSKA Moscow or Krylia Sovetov been keeping clean sheets recently?
CSKA Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Krylia Sovetov in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: CSKA Moscow won 4-0 on 12 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, CSKA Moscow have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Krylia Sovetov — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
CSKA Moscow
4
Draws
0
Krylia Sovetov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and Krylia Sovetov?
From 10 meetings on record, CSKA Moscow have won 6, Krylia Sovetov have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did CSKA Moscow and Krylia Sovetov last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when CSKA Moscow 1-1 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between CSKA Moscow and Krylia Sovetov?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — CSKA Moscow 39%, Krylia Sovetov 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (CSKA Moscow) and 52% (Krylia Sovetov).
On the defensive side: CSKA Moscow keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Krylia Sovetov in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = CSKA Moscow home games / Krylia Sovetov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when CSKA Moscow play Krylia Sovetov?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of CSKA Moscow's recent matches and 52% of Krylia Sovetov's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of CSKA Moscow's recent games and 52% of Krylia Sovetov's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do CSKA Moscow and Krylia Sovetov tend to score early?
CSKA Moscow have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Krylia Sovetov in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant CSKA Moscow run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Krylia Sovetov.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
CSKA Moscow beat Krylia Sovetov 4-0 at VEB Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting CSKA Moscow 1.68 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.12 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. CSKA Moscow beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Krylia Sovetov landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of CSKA Moscow attack 1.09 / defence 0.94 against Krylia Sovetov attack 0.87 / defence 0.95, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it CSKA Moscow 51% | Draw 24% | Krylia Sovetov 25%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (CSKA Moscow 44%, Krylia Sovetov 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — CSKA Moscow 1.65 PPG, Krylia Sovetov 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the CSKA Moscow win broke the near-deadlock. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.91 average — above their attacking norm. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.