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Prediction vindicated as CSKA Moscow edge out Krylia Sovetov 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

CSKA Moscow beat Krylia Sovetov 1-0 at VEB Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting CSKA Moscow 2.34 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.11 xG, a combined 3.45. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. CSKA Moscow fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Krylia Sovetov landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of CSKA Moscow attack 1.38 / defence 0.85 against Krylia Sovetov attack 1.07 / defence 1.18, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it CSKA Moscow 64% | Draw 21% | Krylia Sovetov 15%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 64%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 45% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (CSKA Moscow 48%, Krylia Sovetov 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

CSKA Moscow's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.98 PPG against 1.05. Form held, and they took the win. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.90 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Krylia Sovetov (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights