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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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CSKA Moscow and Krylia Sovetov share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

CSKA Moscow and Krylia Sovetov finished level at 1-1 at VEB Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting CSKA Moscow 1.80 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.03 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. CSKA Moscow fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of CSKA Moscow attack 1.06 / defence 0.86 against Krylia Sovetov attack 1.10 / defence 1.11, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it CSKA Moscow 53% | Draw 27% | Krylia Sovetov 20%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (CSKA Moscow 52%, Krylia Sovetov 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

CSKA Moscow's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights