CSKA Moscow 1-1 Krylia Sovetov – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours CSKA Moscow (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as CSKA Moscow face Krylia Sovetov.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
VEB Arena plays host to CSKA Moscow versus Krylia Sovetov in Premier League, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Sunday 20 April 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
CSKA Moscow (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at VEB Arena, CSKA Moscow have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at VEB Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.70 lags behind their overall 2.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at VEB Arena this season.
Krylia Sovetov have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L W D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.80. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Krylia Sovetov, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Krylia Sovetov's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in CSKA Moscow's favour (2.30 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Across 6 previous meetings, CSKA Moscow are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 10 Nov 2024, ended 2–1 with CSKA Moscow winning.
The historical record gives CSKA Moscow a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
CSKA Moscow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Krylia Sovetov goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — CSKA Moscow 56% versus Krylia Sovetov 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (CSKA Moscow 52% | Krylia Sovetov 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects CSKA Moscow 1.80 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: CSKA Moscow attack 1.059 / defence 0.858 | Krylia Sovetov attack 1.100 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.096. Data: 54 CSKA Moscow games / 54 Krylia Sovetov games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 53% | Draw 27% | Krylia Sovetov 20%. Fair-value odds: CSKA Moscow 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Krylia Sovetov 5.00. CSKA Moscow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, CSKA Moscow are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on CSKA Moscow if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: CSKA Moscow 30% | Krylia Sovetov 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: VEB Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Apr 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 53% | Draw 27% | Krylia Sovetov 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG CSKA Moscow 1.80 / Krylia Sovetov 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: CSKA Moscow attack 1.059 / def 0.858 | Krylia Sovetov attack 1.100 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.096 • Poisson stance: CSKA Moscow (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
CSKA Moscow xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Krylia Sovetov xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov kick off?
CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 20 April 2025 at VEB Arena.
What was the final score in CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov?
CSKA Moscow 1 - 1 Krylia Sovetov.
Where is CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov being played?
The match is being played at VEB Arena.
What competition is CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov part of?
CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our statistical model gives CSKA Moscow a 53% chance of winning, Krylia Sovetov a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making CSKA Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both CSKA Moscow and Krylia Sovetov will score (BTTS).
Will CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and Krylia Sovetov?
Record (6 meetings): CSKA Moscow 5W | Draws 1 | Krylia Sovetov 0W.
What form are CSKA Moscow and Krylia Sovetov in?
CSKA Moscow (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. Krylia Sovetov (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
CSKA Moscow's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Krylia Sovetov's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.80. Flip it around — Krylia Sovetov's attack (1.10x) against CSKA Moscow's defence (0.86x) — and the away total comes out at 1.03.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
CSKA Moscow Win
53%
1.87
27%
3.69
20%
5.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
CSKA Moscow xG
Total xG
2.84
1.03
Krylia Sovetov xG
1.87
53%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
5.12
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
36%
2.82
16%
6.07
Win to Nil
19%
5.27
3%
31.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 6.1 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 10.9 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.9 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are CSKA Moscow and Krylia Sovetov expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for CSKA Moscow and 1.03 for Krylia Sovetov, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
CSKA Moscow's recent record stands at 26W 17D 11L from 54 games, a 1.76 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Krylia Sovetov, meanwhile, have gone 18W 13D 23L across 54 games — 1.24 PPG, with L-L-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for Krylia Sovetov is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours CSKA Moscow by 0.52 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Krylia Sovetov heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, CSKA Moscow have managed 14W 7D 6L from 27 games — 1.81 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Krylia Sovetov's away record stands at 7W 5D 15L across 27 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, CSKA Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
CSKA Moscow are averaging 1.74 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Krylia Sovetov are on 1.39 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Defensively: CSKA Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
CSKA Moscow
Blended
Krylia Sovetov
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are CSKA Moscow and Krylia Sovetov in coming into this match?
CSKA Moscow have gone 26W 17D 11L in their last 54 games (1.76 PPG), while Krylia Sovetov have gone 18W 13D 23L in their last 54 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — CSKA Moscow at home or Krylia Sovetov away?
CSKA Moscow's home record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — CSKA Moscow at home: 1.81 PPG; Krylia Sovetov away: 0.96 PPG.
Have CSKA Moscow or Krylia Sovetov been keeping clean sheets recently?
CSKA Moscow have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Krylia Sovetov in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: CSKA Moscow won 4-0 on 12 Mar 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, CSKA Moscow have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Krylia Sovetov — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
CSKA Moscow
4
Draws
0
Krylia Sovetov
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and Krylia Sovetov?
From 10 meetings on record, CSKA Moscow have won 6, Krylia Sovetov have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did CSKA Moscow and Krylia Sovetov last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when CSKA Moscow 1-1 Krylia Sovetov.
Who has won more matches between CSKA Moscow and Krylia Sovetov?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Krylia Sovetov are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — CSKA Moscow 52%, Krylia Sovetov 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (CSKA Moscow) and 59% (Krylia Sovetov). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: CSKA Moscow keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Krylia Sovetov in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = CSKA Moscow home games / Krylia Sovetov away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when CSKA Moscow play Krylia Sovetov?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of CSKA Moscow's games and 59% of Krylia Sovetov's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is CSKA Moscow vs Krylia Sovetov usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of CSKA Moscow's matches and 59% of Krylia Sovetov's.
Do CSKA Moscow and Krylia Sovetov tend to score early?
CSKA Moscow have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Krylia Sovetov in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
CSKA Moscow and Krylia Sovetov share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
CSKA Moscow and Krylia Sovetov finished level at 1-1 at VEB Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting CSKA Moscow 1.80 xG and Krylia Sovetov 1.03 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. CSKA Moscow fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of CSKA Moscow attack 1.06 / defence 0.86 against Krylia Sovetov attack 1.10 / defence 1.11, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it CSKA Moscow 53% | Draw 27% | Krylia Sovetov 20%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (CSKA Moscow 52%, Krylia Sovetov 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
CSKA Moscow's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Krylia Sovetov's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.24. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.