🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

CSKA Moscow and FC Krasnodar share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

CSKA Moscow and FC Krasnodar finished level at 1-1 at VEB Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting CSKA Moscow 1.36 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.64 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of CSKA Moscow attack 1.41 / defence 0.82 against FC Krasnodar attack 1.53 / defence 0.64, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it CSKA Moscow 30% | Draw 28% | FC Krasnodar 42%, with FC Krasnodar to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (CSKA Moscow 47%, FC Krasnodar 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

CSKA Moscow's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.

FC Krasnodar's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — CSKA Moscow 2.03 PPG, FC Krasnodar 2.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.11 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights