🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as CSKA Moscow edge out FC Krasnodar 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

CSKA Moscow beat FC Krasnodar 1-0 at VEB Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting CSKA Moscow 1.54 xG and FC Krasnodar 1.29 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. FC Krasnodar landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of CSKA Moscow attack 1.04 / defence 0.87 against FC Krasnodar attack 1.36 / defence 1.03, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it CSKA Moscow 40% | Draw 31% | FC Krasnodar 29%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (CSKA Moscow 51%, FC Krasnodar 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

CSKA Moscow's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

FC Krasnodar's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — CSKA Moscow 1.75 PPG, FC Krasnodar 2.05 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the CSKA Moscow win broke the near-deadlock. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.96 average — tighter than their form line. FC Krasnodar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.68 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights