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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as CSKA Moscow edge out Khimki 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

CSKA Moscow beat Khimki 1-0 at VEB Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting CSKA Moscow 1.83 xG and Khimki 1.10 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. CSKA Moscow fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Khimki landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of CSKA Moscow attack 1.03 / defence 0.99 against Khimki attack 0.90 / defence 1.38, drawn from 49/19 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it CSKA Moscow 51% | Draw 29% | Khimki 19%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (CSKA Moscow 47%, Khimki 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

CSKA Moscow's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and duly kept one.

Khimki's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Khimki (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.22 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights