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CSKA Moscow cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Dinamo Makhachkala.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

CSKA Moscow beat Dinamo Makhachkala 3-1 at VEB Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting CSKA Moscow 1.73 xG and Dinamo Makhachkala 0.83 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. CSKA Moscow beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of CSKA Moscow attack 1.06 / defence 1.22 against Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.70 / defence 1.05, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it CSKA Moscow 59% | Draw 24% | Dinamo Makhachkala 18%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 59%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (CSKA Moscow 43%, Dinamo Makhachkala 24%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

CSKA Moscow's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Dinamo Makhachkala's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 0.98. Form held, and they took the win. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.84 average — above their attacking norm. Dinamo Makhachkala (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights