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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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CSKA Moscow cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Dinamo Makhachkala.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

CSKA Moscow beat Dinamo Makhachkala 2-0 at VEB Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting CSKA Moscow 1.57 xG and Dinamo Makhachkala 0.67 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of CSKA Moscow attack 0.93 / defence 0.92 against Dinamo Makhachkala attack 0.65 / defence 1.17, drawn from 51/21 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it CSKA Moscow 57% | Draw 29% | Dinamo Makhachkala 14%, with CSKA Moscow to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (CSKA Moscow 48%, Dinamo Makhachkala 24%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

CSKA Moscow's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.

Dinamo Makhachkala's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, CSKA Moscow arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. CSKA Moscow (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Dinamo Makhachkala (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights