CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours CSKA Moscow (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as CSKA Moscow face Akhmat.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
VEB Arena plays host to CSKA Moscow versus Akhmat in Premier League, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Saturday 21 November 2026 at 16:45 UTC.
Form
CSKA Moscow (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for CSKA Moscow, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at VEB Arena, CSKA Moscow have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Akhmat's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Akhmat, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Akhmat's away record: 0W 5D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form ledger tips toward CSKA Moscow. A 0.90 PPG lead over Akhmat (1.90 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — CSKA Moscow have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Akhmat in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across 10 previous meetings, CSKA Moscow are the stronger side on paper — 6 victories to 3, with 1 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 10 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2026, ended 0–1 with Akhmat winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both CSKA Moscow and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
CSKA Moscow goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Akhmat goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — CSKA Moscow 61% versus Akhmat 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (CSKA Moscow 51% | Akhmat 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects CSKA Moscow 1.56 xG and Akhmat 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: CSKA Moscow attack 1.179 / defence 0.846 | Akhmat attack 0.672 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.354 / away 1.310. Data: 40 CSKA Moscow games / 40 Akhmat games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 54% | Draw 31% | Akhmat 15%. Fair-value odds: CSKA Moscow 1.85 | Draw 3.23 | Akhmat 6.67. CSKA Moscow hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates CSKA Moscow as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on CSKA Moscow if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.30 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: CSKA Moscow 70% | Akhmat 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: VEB Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 16:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: CSKA Moscow 54% | Draw 31% | Akhmat 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG CSKA Moscow 1.56 / Akhmat 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: CSKA Moscow attack 1.179 / def 0.846 | Akhmat attack 0.672 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.354 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: CSKA Moscow (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
CSKA Moscow xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Akhmat xG
44%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat kick off?
CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat is scheduled to kick off at 16:45 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at VEB Arena.
Where is CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat being played?
The match is being played at VEB Arena.
What competition is CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat part of?
CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Premier League (Russia).
Who is favourite to win CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat?
Our statistical model gives CSKA Moscow a 54% chance of winning, Akhmat a 15% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making CSKA Moscow the favourite.
Will both teams score in CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both CSKA Moscow and Akhmat will score (BTTS).
Will CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and Akhmat?
Record (10 meetings): CSKA Moscow 6W | Draws 1 | Akhmat 3W.
What form are CSKA Moscow and Akhmat in?
CSKA Moscow (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-W-W-L. Akhmat (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
CSKA Moscow's attacking strength (1.18x league average) is weighed against Akhmat's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.56. Flip it around — Akhmat's attack (0.67x) against CSKA Moscow's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 40/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.1%), 2-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
CSKA Moscow Win
54%
1.85
31%
3.23
15%
6.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.1%
Home win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
CSKA Moscow xG
Total xG
2.30
0.74
Akhmat xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
6.61
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
47%
2.11
21%
4.74
Win to Nil
26%
3.90
3%
31.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.6 | 11.6 | 4.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.1 | 9.0 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.3 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are CSKA Moscow and Akhmat expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for CSKA Moscow and 0.74 for Akhmat, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
CSKA Moscow's recent record stands at 21W 10D 10L from 41 games, a 1.78 PPG return, with W-D-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for CSKA Moscow is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Akhmat, meanwhile, have gone 11W 15D 15L across 41 games — 1.17 PPG, with D-W-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Akhmat is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours CSKA Moscow by 0.61 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Akhmat heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, CSKA Moscow have managed 14W 4D 3L from 21 games — 2.19 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.78 PPG overall — CSKA Moscow are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Akhmat's away record stands at 1W 10D 10L across 21 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.17 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Akhmat's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, CSKA Moscow come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
CSKA Moscow are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Akhmat are on 1.22 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: CSKA Moscow have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 41 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
CSKA Moscow
Blended
Akhmat
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are CSKA Moscow and Akhmat in coming into this match?
CSKA Moscow have gone 21W 10D 10L in their last 41 games (1.78 PPG), while Akhmat have gone 11W 15D 15L in their last 41 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — CSKA Moscow at home or Akhmat away?
CSKA Moscow's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — CSKA Moscow at home: 2.19 PPG; Akhmat away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 1 March 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: CSKA Moscow won 3-0 on 28 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, CSKA Moscow have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Akhmat — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
CSKA Moscow
1
Draws
3
Akhmat
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between CSKA Moscow and Akhmat?
From 10 meetings on record, CSKA Moscow have won 6, Akhmat have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did CSKA Moscow and Akhmat last play each other?
They last met on 1 March 2026, when Akhmat 1-0 CSKA Moscow.
Who has won more matches between CSKA Moscow and Akhmat?
CSKA Moscow have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
CSKA Moscow are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Akhmat are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — CSKA Moscow 67%, Akhmat 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (CSKA Moscow) and 38% (Akhmat).
On the defensive side: Akhmat in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = CSKA Moscow home games / Akhmat away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when CSKA Moscow play Akhmat?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of CSKA Moscow's games and 62% of Akhmat's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is CSKA Moscow vs Akhmat usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of CSKA Moscow's recent games and 38% of Akhmat's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do CSKA Moscow and Akhmat tend to score early?
CSKA Moscow have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Akhmat in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.