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Stalemate at Baltika's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Rostec Arena, Regular Season - 8, as Baltika and Zenit drew 0-0 in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Baltika 1.40 xG and Zenit 1.46 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Baltika fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Zenit landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baltika attack 0.96 / defence 1.13 against Zenit attack 1.03 / defence 0.97, drawn from 7/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Baltika 34% | Draw 29% | Zenit 37%, with Zenit to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baltika 29%, Zenit 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Baltika's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.

Zenit's trading profile (7 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Baltika arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.71. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Baltika managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward. Zenit managed 0 against a 1.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights