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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Baltika edge out Spartak Moscow 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Baltika beat Spartak Moscow 1-0 at Rostec Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Baltika 1.32 xG and Spartak Moscow 1.11 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Spartak Moscow landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baltika attack 0.92 / defence 0.84 against Spartak Moscow attack 1.25 / defence 1.08, drawn from 16/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Baltika 39% | Draw 32% | Spartak Moscow 29%, with Baltika to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baltika 19%, Spartak Moscow 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Baltika's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and duly kept one.

Spartak Moscow's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Baltika 1.81 PPG, Spartak Moscow 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Baltika win broke the near-deadlock. Spartak Moscow (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights