Baltika 0-1 Rubin – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Baltika at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Baltika face Rubin.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Rubin travel to Rostec Arena to take on Baltika in Premier League (matchday 28). The game is scheduled for Saturday 2 May 2026 at 15:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Baltika stand at 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Baltika at home: 6W 3D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Baltika are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Rubin — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Rubin's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 3D 5L (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Baltika) versus 1.60 (Rubin). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (from Baltika's last 10 home games and Rubin's last 10 away games). Baltika's 20% and Rubin's 20% BTTS rates are both low — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for Baltika, 2 for Rubin and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 19 Oct 2025, ended Baltika 3–0 Rubin — a Baltika win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Baltika trading profile (last 27 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
Rubin trading profile (last 27 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time; they fail to score in 41% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams scored in only 37% of Baltika's games and 30% of Rubin's. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Baltika 26% | Rubin 33%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Baltika surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Rubin have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 40% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Baltika 0.94 xG and Rubin 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Baltika attack 0.929 / defence 0.933 | Rubin attack 0.797 / defence 0.741. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.057. Rubin bring a tight defence (rating 0.741, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Baltika's projected output down. Rubin's attack rating of 0.797 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.79. Data: built from Baltika's last 27 games and Rubin's last 57.
Result probabilities: Baltika 37% | Draw 34% | Rubin 29%. Fair-value odds: Baltika 2.68 | Draw 2.95 | Rubin 3.47. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS Yes probability 33% | Total xG 1.73. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.73 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Rubin's lower xG of 0.79 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Baltika as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Baltika offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.73 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 75% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Baltika's last 10 home games and Rubin's last 10 away games) averaging 1.6 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Baltika 20% (last 10 home games) | Rubin 20% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Baltika vs Rubin | Competition: Premier League, matchday 28 | Venue: Rostec Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 2 May 2026 at 15:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Baltika 37% | Draw 34% | Rubin 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% (Under 75%) | BTTS Yes 33% (No 67%) | xG Baltika 0.94 / Rubin 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Baltika attack 0.929 / def 0.933 | Rubin attack 0.797 / def 0.741 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Baltika (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Baltika xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Rubin xG
33%
BTTS
52%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Baltika vs Rubin FAQs
What time does Baltika vs Rubin kick off?
Baltika vs Rubin kicked off at 15:30 UK time on Saturday 2 May 2026 at Rostec Arena.
What was the final score in Baltika vs Rubin?
Baltika 0 - 1 Rubin.
Where is Baltika vs Rubin being played?
The match is being played at Rostec Arena.
What competition is Baltika vs Rubin part of?
Baltika vs Rubin is a Premier League fixture (matchday 28) (Russia).
Who is favourite to win Baltika vs Rubin?
Our statistical model gives Baltika a 37% chance of winning, Rubin a 29% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Baltika the favourite.
Will both teams score in Baltika vs Rubin?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Baltika and Rubin will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (67%).
Will Baltika vs Rubin have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (75%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Baltika's attack at 0.93x the league average against Rubin's defence at 0.74x — combine the two and it projects 0.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Rubin's attack versus Baltika's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Baltika's last 27 games and Rubin's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Baltika Win
37%
2.68
34%
2.95
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Baltika xG
Total xG
1.73
0.79
Rubin xG
2.68
37%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.00
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
46%
2.20
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
17%
5.89
11%
8.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.8 | 14.0 | 5.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 13.2 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 7.8 | 6.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Baltika vs Rubin Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Baltika vs Rubin?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.5%.
How many goals are Baltika and Rubin expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Baltika and 0.79 for Rubin, a combined total of 1.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Baltika vs Rubin?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Baltika's recent record stands at 11W 13D 3L from 27 games, a 1.70 PPG return, with D-D-D-D-L in the last five.
Rubin, meanwhile, have gone 10W 9D 8L across 27 games — 1.44 PPG, with W-D-D-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Baltika on 1.70 PPG, Rubin on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Baltika have managed 7W 5D 1L from their last 13 home games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Rubin's away record stands at 3W 4D 6L across their last 13 away games, a 1.00 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Rubin's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Baltika come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Baltika are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 0.63 conceded per game recently; Rubin are on 0.93 scored and 0.96 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Rubin in 30%.
Defensively: Baltika have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games; Rubin in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 27 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Baltika
Blended
Rubin
Blended
Baltika (Home) vs Rubin (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Baltika
Blended
Rubin
Blended
❓ Baltika vs Rubin Form FAQs
What form are Baltika and Rubin in coming into this match?
Baltika have gone 11W 13D 3L in their last 27 games (1.70 PPG), while Rubin have gone 10W 9D 8L in their last 27 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Baltika at home or Rubin away?
Baltika's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Baltika at home: 2.00 PPG; Rubin away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Baltika or Rubin been keeping clean sheets recently?
Baltika have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Rubin in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 5 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 24 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 19 Oct 2025, when Baltika won Rubin 0-3 Baltika.
Baltika's record when hosting Rubin specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Baltika
1
Draws
3
Rubin
Recent Meetings
❓ Baltika vs Rubin H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Baltika and Rubin?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Baltika have won 1, Rubin have won 3, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Baltika and Rubin last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 24 August 2026: Baltika 1-1 Rubin.
Who has won more matches between Baltika and Rubin?
Rubin have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Baltika are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Rubin are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Baltika 31% BTTS, Rubin 31%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 23% for Baltika and 31% for Rubin.
On the defensive side: Baltika keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Rubin in 38%; Rubin in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Baltika home games / Rubin away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Baltika vs Rubin Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Baltika and Rubin matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Baltika's recent matches and 31% of Rubin's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Baltika and Rubin matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Baltika's recent games and 31% of Rubin's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Baltika and Rubin matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Baltika's recent matches and 62% of Rubin's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Rubin defy the odds to beat Baltika 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rubin beat Baltika 0-1 at Rostec Arena, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Baltika 0.94 xG and Rubin 0.79 xG, a combined 1.73. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Baltika fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Baltika attack 0.93 / defence 0.93 against Rubin attack 0.80 / defence 0.74, drawn from 27/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Baltika 37% | Draw 34% | Rubin 29%, with Baltika to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Rubin win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 52% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 30% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Baltika 26%, Rubin 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Baltika's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Rubin's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Baltika 1.70 PPG, Rubin 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rubin win broke the near-deadlock. Baltika (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.46 scoring average — below par going forward. Rubin (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.